The US withdrawal from Iraq is due to finish by Wednesday, when the last American forces are set to leave their remaining bases after more than two decades, according to Reuters’ reporting on the final pullout. Iran and its Iraqi allies are celebrating the exit as a victory, while some Iraqi security experts warn it could expose the country to Tehran’s influence and to Islamic State. Baghdad agreed the pullout with Washington in 2024 under President Joe Biden, and the Trump administration is carrying it out while waging war against Iran. HCN has not seen a final US statement declaring the withdrawal complete.
How the US withdrawal from Iraq reached its final days
The American presence began with the 2003 invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein and peaked at about 170,000 troops. President Barack Obama pulled US forces out in 2011, but roughly 5,000 returned in 2014 at Baghdad’s request to help fight the Islamic State group. The US ended its combat role in December 2021, leaving about 2,500 troops in an advise-and-assist role. By Reuters’ count, 4,500 Americans died in Iraq over the two decades of war.
The 2024 agreement between Washington and Baghdad set out a two-step wind-down of the US-led coalition against Islamic State. The first target, the end of September 2025, slipped for a small group of roughly 250 to 350 advisers who stayed at al-Asad air base because of developments in Syria, Military Times reported. In January, Iraq’s Defense Ministry announced that the final contingent had left al-Asad, in Anbar province, and declared the federal territory clear of US forces. American troops remained at Harir Air Base in the semiautonomous Kurdistan region, which the central government does not fully control.
What is confirmed, and what is not
Reuters reported on Tuesday that the last US forces were set to leave by Wednesday, September 30, the date Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has called “fixed and final” for ending the coalition’s mission. A State Department spokesperson told Shafaq News last week that the United States was on course to finish by that date. Officials have not publicly said how many troops remain or where they will go, and an unnamed US official gave no such detail to the Associated Press in August.
One report complicates the picture. The German news agency dpa quoted an unnamed Iraqi government official on Sunday as saying all US combat and logistics forces had already left, with no immediate US confirmation. HCN could not reconcile that account with Reuters’ description of a withdrawal still under way. The exact moment the last soldier leaves therefore remains unverified.
Iran and its allies claim a victory
Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, a commander in the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of Iran-backed armed factions, called the exit a historic victory and said his groups would celebrate on September 30. That is the claim of an interested party, but Iraqi security experts told Reuters that the departure removes a counterweight to Tehran’s influence. One of them, analyst Jasim al-Bahadli, who studies Iran-aligned armed groups, said the militias would try to turn the moment into more say over security and politics.
The timing is charged. The US and Israel launched a war against Iran on Feb. 28, according to reporting by the TNND news service, and Reuters says 7 of the 18 US service members listed as killed in that war died in Iraq. American bases there have been attacked repeatedly by Iran and its allies for years, including a 2020 missile strike on al-Asad after the US killed Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani at Baghdad airport.
Iraqi worries about security and sovereignty
The departure of foreign troops is broadly popular among Iraqis, Reuters reports, but not everyone is comfortable with the timing. Abdulrahman al-Zobaie, a Sunni tribal leader in Fallujah, told the agency Iraq was “not fully ready to take over the security file.” Other experts said the exit could allow US enemies, including Islamic State, to stage a comeback. The group has lost the large territories it once held in Iraq and Syria, though dpa reports that cells remain active and occasionally attack.
Baghdad is presenting the moment as a step toward full sovereignty. Zaidi told the UN General Assembly on Friday that ending the mission would shift Iraq’s ties with its partners from military cooperation to economic and development cooperation, Middle East Eye reported. He has also set the same September 30 deadline for armed groups outside state control to lay down their weapons, according to the Associated Press, though HCN has not seen confirmation of whether they will comply.
What remains unresolved
The shape of US-Iraq security ties after Wednesday is not clear. The 2024 agreement points to bilateral security cooperation replacing the coalition mission, but as of August the Pentagon had not publicly detailed what that means for the Kurdistan region, where several coalition sites have hosted training, logistics and air operations. The reports reviewed also do not say whether any US personnel will stay in Iraq in a different role, or whether Iran-aligned factions will hand over their weapons. HCN will update this story as verified information emerges.